UK retail sales: What a very merry Christmas, but bleak New Year?
So its official, we people in retail land had a bumper Christmas – the best since 2001. According to the British Retail Consortium, like-for-likes were up 2.6% on 2004, showing the biggest monthly gain since May 2004.How predictable then that the press are banging on about “the return of consumer spending” and speculation about an interest rate rise being back on the cards. Hold it boys. Look around. Where did all the shoppers go?
I don’t feel at all optimistic about consumer spending. Two days after Christmas and the stores were dead – you can see it in the figures and you can see it in the flesh. My prediction is that the first quarter of 2006 will be very very difficult for retailers. Christmas might have provided a temporary bonus, but the pickings weren’t good enough to last through to the spring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a continuing rise in retail liquidations in early 2006.
It’s not all doom and gloom. There will be growth to be had I’m sure, but my money wont be on the high street this quarter.
posted by Paul Fisher @ 5:00 pm
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